发表于 2025年10月11日
Gold has broken yet another record this week, illustrating just how anxious investors are about the health of the U.S. economy.
This week, the price of gold hit $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever. That's the latest milestone in its massive ongoing rally, with prices rising more than 50% just this year.
The precious metal is usually seen as a "safe haven" investment, especially when more mainstream assets seem risky. The soaring demand for its perceived safety coincides with President Trump's dramatic and often erratic economic policies, including upending global trade and threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve.
On the surface, Wall Street seems to have mostly shrugged off this spring's worries about Trump's policies. In recent weeks, the major U.S. stock market indices have hit record high after record high.
But at the same time, the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen about 10%. That threatens both the stability of the global economy, since the dollar undergirds so much of its financial system, and the United States' long-established dominance as the world's economic superpower.
"Gold usually rises when the dollar is weak," says Jose Rasco, chief investment officer for HSBC Americas.
"Given all the uncertainty around policy, people said, 'We're not sure about the dollar' … and the dollar has depreciated as a result," he added.
Now gold is having its hottest year in nearly half a century — since the global energy and inflation crises of 1979.
And it's showing no signs of stopping: This week, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted that the price of gold would hit $4,900 by the end of 2026.
Daan Struyven, Goldman's co-head of commodities research, co-authored that report. He tells NPR that he wouldn't be surprised if gold beats his high expectations (or has what he calls "upside risk").
"While our price forecast is quite elevated, we actually see some upside risk to that high price target," Struyven says
**Gold may be known as a "safe haven" — but there are risks, and costs, to buying it**
Gold has long enjoyed a reputation for offering safety in what's known as the "fear trade." As a glittering precious metal that can be held (and hoarded!), gold offers the appearance of safety and solidity next to stocks and other (often less-material) financial instruments.
"When it seems like the world is going to hell in a handbasket, gold usually appreciates," Lee Baker, a certified financial planner who is the founder and CEO of Claris Financial Advisors in Atlanta, told NPR this spring.
But he warns there can be downsides to buying and owning gold — even in times of crisis. For example, unlike stocks or bonds, gold doesn't pay any dividends or interest. So the only way to make money from this investment is to buy some, and then hope to sell it after the price goes up.
There are also physical and logistical challenges to investing in gold — especially for people who want to buy the real thing. For example, buyers need to consider how to store it — and whether to pay for the security and insurance required to keep precious metals in their homes.
For those who are gold-curious but perhaps not ready to adopt a doomsday-prepper lifestyle, Baker notes that it's possible to invest in gold-backed funds that don't require physical ownership of precious metals.
More broadly, he says the current gold frenzy highlights a larger lesson about investing in more than just one asset class, such as stocks.
"Your mama told you not to put all your eggs in one basket. It applies to investing as well," he says. "Diversification matters."
Gold has broken yet another record this week, illustrating just how anxious investors are about the health of the U.S. economy.
黄金本周再次刷新纪录，这表明投资者对美国经济的健康状况是多么焦虑不安。
This week, the price of gold hit $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever. That's the latest milestone in its massive ongoing rally, with prices rising more than 50% just this year.
本周，黄金价格有史以来首次达到每盎司4000美元。这是其持续大幅上涨的最新里程碑，仅今年一年，黄金价格就上涨了50%以上。
The precious metal is usually seen as a "safe haven" investment, especially when more mainstream assets seem risky. The soaring demand for its perceived safety coincides with President Trump's dramatic and often erratic economic policies, including upending global trade and threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve.
这种贵金属通常被视为一种“避险”投资，尤其是在更多主流资产看起来风险较高的时候。对其被视为安全的强劲需求，恰逢特朗普总统戏剧性且常常反复无常的经济政策，其中包括颠覆全球贸易以及威胁美联储的独立性。
On the surface, Wall Street seems to have mostly shrugged off this spring's worries about Trump's policies. In recent weeks, the major U.S. stock market indices have hit record high after record high.
表面上看，华尔街似乎对今春有关特朗普政策的担忧大多不以为意。近几周，美国主要股指接连创下历史新高。
But at the same time, the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen about 10%. That threatens both the stability of the global economy, since the dollar undergirds so much of its financial system, and the United States' long-established dominance as the world's economic superpower.
但与此同时，美元价值下跌了约10%。这既威胁到全球经济的稳定性（因为美元是其大部分金融体系的基石），也威胁到美国作为世界经济超级大国长期以来建立的主导地位。
"Gold usually rises when the dollar is weak," says Jose Rasco, chief investment officer for HSBC Americas.
汇丰银行美洲区首席投资官何塞·拉斯科（Jose Rasco）表示：“黄金通常在美元走弱时上涨。”
"Given all the uncertainty around policy, people said, 'We're not sure about the dollar' … and the dollar has depreciated as a result," he added.
他补充说，“考虑到政策方面的种种不确定性，人们会说，‘我们对美元的前景感到不确定’……结果美元因此贬值了。”
Now gold is having its hottest year in nearly half a century — since the global energy and inflation crises of 1979.
如今，黄金正经历着近半个世纪以来最火爆的一年——上一次还是在1979年全球能源和通货膨胀危机期间。
And it's showing no signs of stopping: This week, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted that the price of gold would hit $4,900 by the end of 2026.
并且，它没有显示出任何停止的迹象：本周，高盛（Goldman Sachs）的分析师预测，到2026年底，黄金价格将达到4900美元。
Daan Struyven, Goldman's co-head of commodities research, co-authored that report. He tells NPR that he wouldn't be surprised if gold beats his high expectations (or has what he calls "upside risk").
高盛大宗商品研究联席主管丹·斯特鲁文（Daan Struyven）是这份报告的共同作者。他告诉美国国家公共电台（NPR），如果黄金的表现超出他的高预期（或者他所说的存在“上行风险”），他并不会感到意外。
"While our price forecast is quite elevated, we actually see some upside risk to that high price target," Struyven says
“尽管我们对金价的预测已经相当高了，但我们实际上认为，这一高目标价仍存在一定的上涨空间，”施特鲁伊文说。
**Gold may be known as a "safe haven" — but there are risks, and costs, to buying it**
黄金或许被称为“避险资产”——但购买它也有风险和成本
Gold has long enjoyed a reputation for offering safety in what's known as the "fear trade." As a glittering precious metal that can be held (and hoarded!), gold offers the appearance of safety and solidity next to stocks and other (often less-material) financial instruments.
黄金长期以来一直以其在所谓的“避险交易”（"fear trade"，指投资者在市场恐慌时转向黄金以规避风险）中的安全性而享有盛誉。作为一种可以实际持有（甚至囤积！）的闪亮贵金属，与股票和其他（通常不那么有形的）金融工具相比，黄金给人一种安全和坚固的表象。
"When it seems like the world is going to hell in a handbasket, gold usually appreciates," Lee Baker, a certified financial planner who is the founder and CEO of Claris Financial Advisors in Atlanta, told NPR this spring.
“当世界似乎正在彻底崩溃时，黄金通常会升值，” 亚特兰大Claris金融顾问公司的创始人兼首席执行官、注册理财规划师李·贝克（Lee Baker）今年春天对美国国家公共电台（NPR）说。
But he warns there can be downsides to buying and owning gold — even in times of crisis. For example, unlike stocks or bonds, gold doesn't pay any dividends or interest. So the only way to make money from this investment is to buy some, and then hope to sell it after the price goes up.
但他警告说，购买和持有黄金也可能存在一些弊端，即便是在危机时期也一样。例如，与股票或债券不同，黄金不会支付任何股息或利息。因此，通过这种投资赚钱的唯一方式就是买入一些，然后寄希望于价格上涨后再卖出。
There are also physical and logistical challenges to investing in gold — especially for people who want to buy the real thing. For example, buyers need to consider how to store it — and whether to pay for the security and insurance required to keep precious metals in their homes.
投资黄金还存在实物和操作上的挑战——特别是对于那些想购买实物黄金的人来说。例如，购买者需要考虑如何妥善保管黄金，以及是否需要支付将贵金属存放在家中所需的安保和保险费用。
For those who are gold-curious but perhaps not ready to adopt a doomsday-prepper lifestyle, Baker notes that it's possible to invest in gold-backed funds that don't require physical ownership of precious metals.
对于那些对黄金好奇但可能还未准备好过上“末日求生者”生活方式（即囤积大量实物黄金）的人，贝克指出，可以投资黄金支持的基金，这样就不需要实际拥有贵金属。
More broadly, he says the current gold frenzy highlights a larger lesson about investing in more than just one asset class, such as stocks.
从更广的层面来看，他表示当前的黄金热潮揭示了一个关于投资的更重要道理：不要只投资于股票等一种资产类别。
"Your mama told you not to put all your eggs in one basket. It applies to investing as well," he says. "Diversification matters."
“你妈妈肯定告诉过你，不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。这道理同样适用于投资，”他说。“分散投资很重要。”